With the closure of Iranian and Iraqi airspace since 13 June, flights that normally pass through either of those countries need new routes. As a consequence, overflights of Saudi Arabia have doubled over the past week while the number of flights over Afghanistan has increased by nearly 500 percent.
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Overflights—those aircraft not departing or landing in given country—have risen above Saudi Arabia from an average of 700 flights per day in mid-May to 1,400 flights per day since the closure of Iranian and Iraqi airspace on 13 June.
Overflights of Afghanistan have risen from an average 50 per day in May to 280 per day since 13 June. The increase in traffic comes just as Kabul FIR issued a NOTAM informing flights of possible en route holding due to the need for aircraft spacing. Following the American withdrawal from Afghanistan, air traffic service has been limited to non-existent within Afghanistan.
Which airlines are most affected?
It should come as no surprise that the two airlines most affected by the closure of airspace in Iran and Iraq are the two largest airlines in the Middle East. A vast majority of Qatar’s flights to Europe and North America usually pass over Iraq, while Emirates maintains a more equal distribution between Iraq and Iran. Flydubai’s loss of access to Iranian airspace has increased flight times for the airline as it must now route further east through Pakistan and Afghanistan to reach destinations north of Dubai. For example, the airline’s flights from Dubai to Moscow increased from about five hours to nearly seven.
Even before the most recent closure of Iran and Iraq, airlines have had limited options to fly between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. The great circle route (or shortest path on the globe) between Europe and Asia generally routes through either Ukraine or Russia, airspace that is currently unavailable to all airlines (in the case of Ukraine) and all western airlines (in the case of Russia). This has squeezed most traffic into limited space over the Black Sea to the north and through Saudia Arabia to the south. Should the conflict between Iran and Israel expand and additional air routes close, the effects on commercial aviation could be profound.
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